Avram Grumer ([info]agrumer) wrote,
@ 2006-03-20 23:05:00
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Current music:"(I Can't Seem To) Make You Mine", Clientele
Entry tags:sf, weird

Nine years to the Singularity
razor curvesSomeone at The Economist with a bit of extra time on his hands was looking at the recent proliferation of many-bladed razors, and noticed that the time gap between blade increments seems to be shrinking: 70 years before someone added the second blade, a couple of decades to the third, only two or three years between the four-bladed Schick Quattro and the five-bladed Gillette Fusion. Might there be a Moore’s Law for razors blades? Hence the chart over there.

Now, that power-law curve predicts 14-bladed razors by the year 2100, but that’s not the interesting curve. The interesting curve is the hyperbolic one, for two reasons: One, it matches the real-world data. And two, it goes to infinity in 2015. And how are you going to get an asymptotically-accelerating number of blades onto a razor? Why, you’d need godlike super-technology to do that.

Right. There it is, proof of the approaching Vingean Singularity, sooner than anyone expected it, clear as the chin on your face.

(Update!)




(46 comments) - (Post a new comment)


[info]solarbird
2006-03-21 04:14 am UTC (link)
When the experimental 2015 razor collapses in on itself in a world-denuding black hole of blades, they'll say they did it for t3h lulz.

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[info]mylescorcoran
2006-03-21 09:12 am UTC (link)
If I didn't sport a full beard I too would want to shave nano-closer. I for one welcome our future Aleph-0 bladed overlords.

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(Reply from suspended user)

[info]nancylebov
2006-03-21 10:10 am UTC (link)
I don't think it takes godlike powers to produce nanotech hair-nibblers.

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[info]hattifattener
2006-03-29 09:01 am UTC (link)
Nanotech will only get us to 10 7 blades or so. If I read the chart right, a few milliseconds after that, the blade spacing will be shorter than the Planck length, and, uhhhh, <tech tech tech>!

(Reply to this) (Parent)

Occam's Razor?
(Anonymous)
2006-03-21 02:38 pm UTC (link)
Has Ray Kurzweil been shown this data? Or does he own Schick stock?

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Re: Occam's Razor?
(Anonymous)
2006-03-21 09:13 pm UTC (link)
Is "Schick Stock" similar to "Sticker Shock", another modern phenomenon?

(Reply to this) (Parent)

Re: Occam's Razor?
(Anonymous)
2006-09-05 03:32 am UTC (link)
The real question is -- will it get your Schick out of shape?

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: Occam's Razor?
(Anonymous)
2007-05-06 02:52 am UTC (link)
the first blade lifts, the second one cuts, you get your schick out of shape.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

another factor
(Anonymous)
2006-03-21 03:08 pm UTC (link)
A factor this study didn't include may allow us to start the curve much earlier and get some interesting results: not mentioned was the SIZE of the blade involved. Early shaving systems used hand-held, general purpose knives, which evolved over time into the straight razor, a smaller, special purpose blade. With the advent of the safety razor, which was invented in the 1890's but didn't achieve widespread acceptance until WW I, the blade shrank still further. There were several intermediate reductions in size (e.g. Schick injector) between the original safety razor and the advent of the first 2-bladed device. Projecting this curve leads us to nanoblades, each specifically targeted to a single hair, so that with one swipe, the entire beard can be removed in record time.

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Re: another factor
[info]pavel_lishin
2006-03-21 10:28 pm UTC (link)
It won't even be a razor, per se. It'll be a sort of mask, custom-fitted to your face. You'll just put your face in, and take it out, leaving any unwanted facial hair inside.

God help you if your face gets chubby, though.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

Re: another factor
(Anonymous)
2008-03-14 09:55 pm UTC (link)
That's not possible actually unless there is a person in the world with infinite strings of beard on their face and I know even King Kong doesn't have that much hair

(Reply to this) (Parent)

S curve
(Anonymous)
2006-03-21 06:18 pm UTC (link)
More than likely if the curve continues, it will eventually level off asymtotically. Just google "s curve" and you can see what I'm talking about. Examples of problems that Gillete and company might run into that would cause the exponential growth to level off:

1) They hit physical limits that make it cost-prohibitive or just plain impossible to increase the number of blades. Maybe the blades would have to be so thin at some point that they could not be made strong enough?

2) Shaves get "good enough" that consumers don't see the advantage in paying for the next big upgrade.

I'm thinking that (2) would pretty much kill the exponential growth for good when it happens. However, the physical limits that cause S-curves are often overcome by jumping substrates. As an example, in the computer industry we went from vacuum tubes to transistors, etc.

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Re: S curve
[info]pavel_lishin
2006-03-21 10:29 pm UTC (link)
2) Shaves get "good enough" that consumers don't see the advantage in paying for the next big upgrade.

Pssh. That's for Marketing to wrestle with. Their whole job is convincing people to buy things they don't need. How many people right now could tell the difference between a 3-blade shave and a 4 blade shave? I bet darn few. And those few are probably just bullshitting.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: S curve
(Anonymous)
2006-03-27 04:28 pm UTC (link)
Well, I can tell you the difference between a single-blade and a twin-blade shave: the single-blade is better. A lot better. What makes the twin-blade shavers remarkable is not that they have two blades or anything like that, but that the disposable cartridges are designed so that you can grasp the handle and carelessly scrape the blades across your face without cutting yourself.

The double-edged, single-bladed safety razors introduced in 1903 had nearly sixty years to evolve before the introduction of the cartridge razor. And they remain the ideal tool for shaving. Yes, you can cut yourself with them: on the other hand, if you're not an idiot and know how to use one, you get the best shave possible with the current technology.

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Re: S curve
[info]doctor_frank
2006-06-18 06:05 pm UTC (link)
How many people right now could tell the difference between a 3-blade shave and a 4 blade shave?
Oh that's easy - simply count the number of equidistant red parallel lines on the person's face ;)

(arrived here via Majikthise via Pharyngula). I'd actually been meaning to do a post myself about the razor thing since I saw it in a presentation by Doug Hoftstadter discussing the `Singularity'.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

Re: S curve
[info]plymouth
2006-09-02 06:55 am UTC (link)
I did actually notice a difference going from the 2-bladed Sensor-Excell to the 3-bladed Mach-3... but the difference was, I'm pretty sure, due more to the fact that the head of the Mach-3 swivels in a more useful way than anything to do with the number of blades. For the most part multiple blades just seem to make it harder to keep them clean because hairs like to get jammed in the gap between the blades.

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[info]jcb
2006-03-21 06:52 pm UTC (link)
this is why i love econ

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[info]xuenay
2006-03-21 06:53 pm UTC (link)
Gold. :)

(And actually a pretty good criticism for all those "these charts prove the Singularity's coming soon"-arguments.)

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fusion web site
(Anonymous)
2006-03-21 09:09 pm UTC (link)
I think Gillette has already anticipated this tread. I mean, they have a futuristic portal specially designed for thier rayzor.
http://www.gillettefusion.com/us/

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The 2015 Singularity
(Anonymous)
2006-03-21 11:17 pm UTC (link)
I was worried about our future considering that our most "cutting-edge/high-tech" (bad pun intended) advances are now applied to razor blades and tooth brushes, but I didn't know it would bring about the end of the universe. I prefer electric anyway.

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[info]bigscary
2006-03-21 11:24 pm UTC (link)
Right alongside, better electric shaving is helping to drive AI.

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[info]agrumer
2006-03-22 01:48 am UTC (link)
OK, how does this tie into the next book in the Cryptonomicon/Baroque Cycle series? We’re pretty darn sure there’ll be an AI, and Randy’s girlfriend did write that paper about the semiotics of beards and shaving....

(Reply to this) (Parent)


[info]dershem
2006-03-22 02:28 am UTC (link)
Those of us with beards just laugh quietly to ourselves.

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Nine Years to Singularity
(Anonymous)
2006-03-22 11:45 am UTC (link)
I think the end of razor blades is near. Pretty soon, thanks to stem cell therapy, we'll be able to keep a baby face as long as we want. I'm selling both my Shick and Gillette shares. Francois.

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Minds think
[info]contrafrutexus
2006-03-22 09:27 pm UTC (link)
Two days ago I was talking with a drug-store clerk about razors, because I realised that I can't see a display for the five-bladed apparat without thinking of the Onion's "F*** It, We're Going for Five Blades", as well as Saturday Night Live "triple-track" ad parody circa 1976.

In any event, he said, "When are they going to six?," and I immediately spouted back, "Why stop there?...'Announcing, the InfiniBlade!,'---but they'd need nanotechnology to make it."

The cool thing is, it should act as a diffraction grating, so the Skittles slogan can be recycled into "Shave the Rainbow."

(Reply to this) (Thread)

Re: Minds think
[info]fredtheavenger
2006-05-14 04:52 pm UTC (link)
The "five bladed Gillette fusion" actally has six blades, so we're there already. Or at least, you are. I haven't seen it this side of the Atlantic yet.

(Reply to this) (Parent)


[info]arcanequeen
2006-03-23 07:49 pm UTC (link)
I don't know any of you personally but I read this journal and the comments regularly. I am so impressed with the writing, the topics, and the quality of the discussion. Thank you all so much. Please keep it up.

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tmqb called it
(Anonymous)
2006-03-24 07:17 pm UTC (link)
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9213999
(near the bottom)
tuesday morning quarterback writes a column. he used to call "gillette stadium" in foxboro, massachusetts "next-one-will-have-five-blades field".

from his feb 7, 2006 column:

Patriots Announce Stadium to be Renamed: Next One Will Have 11 Trans-Dimensional Nanoprobe-Embedded Force-Field-Projecting Blades Field: Reader Josh Byrne of Philadelphia relates the news that Gillette's six-blade razor has already been trumped -- Hitachi just released a 10-bladed razor, which "plays at invariable speed, ensuring the overall effectiveness." As noted last week, TMQ's Law of Razors holds that each century will see a razor with blades equal to the factorial of the highest number of blades on a razor of the previous century. This means that in the 22nd century, someone will market razor with 3,628,800 blades (10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1).

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Next thing you know....
(Anonymous)
2006-03-27 10:50 am UTC (link)
...there will be razors with hundreds of blades that use motors.

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infinity
(Anonymous)
2006-03-27 10:55 am UTC (link)
Little nanabots that make their own blades and cut hairs as they grow.

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Nanorazor Face Beaver Droid Army
(Anonymous)
2006-03-27 09:30 pm UTC (link)
The real juncture of the increasing number decreasing size razors is having our faces populated by nanoscale beaver-like bio machines that cut down beard stubble stumps and eat them for energy - a permanently baby butt smooth face - just hope they don't mutate.

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Re: Nanorazor Face Beaver Droid Army
[info]physgrrl
2006-06-20 10:34 pm UTC (link)
Yeah...but what girl will kiss you? Or is that a non-issue? :)

(Reply to this) (Parent)

Re: Nanorazor Face Beaver Droid Army
[info]barking_iguana
2006-07-12 04:09 am UTC (link)
Nanogoats, keeping the undergrowth in check.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

Mass Shaving Razors?
(Anonymous)
2006-03-28 06:41 am UTC (link)
Obviously, the danger comes from having some kind of technology at it's peak. Will the occidental governments allow for this edge-tech to be accessible for not trusted countries?

Imagine armies of razor-bots attempting to get a close shave on everyone. It's the end of the world!

I would also take a look at the number of hamburgers, just heard someone released a commercial three-heights. Nano-hamburgers could mean the end for a lot of people.

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[info]ishldgetoutmore
2006-04-27 03:12 am UTC (link)
They probably need those infinite-blade razors to trim hairy black holes...

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cool
[info]dcdragon67
2006-04-28 01:22 am UTC (link)
am i the only one here who's actually believing this? (or are we all?)

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Re: cool
[info]barking_iguana
2006-07-12 04:11 am UTC (link)
Hey, how did you find your way here? I know the blogger from Columbia University Games Club.

(Reply to this) (Parent)


[info]jdm314
2006-04-29 03:01 pm UTC (link)
In case no one else has linked this yet: Irregular Webcomic

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Gee, didn't Norelco give us this already?
(Anonymous)
2006-06-28 04:39 pm UTC (link)
Wow! As if spending $10 per razor refill weren't enough already! I'm definitely going to buy some Gillette stock now.

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The Schick Infini-T
[info]kazvorpal
2006-07-12 01:34 am UTC (link)


Personally, I'm holding out for the Wearable Norelco.

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The Quintippio Megashave
(Anonymous)
2006-07-12 05:42 pm UTC (link)
Philips' Cool Skin line had a similar parody with the Quintippio Megashave which can be seen at http://www.coolskin.philips.com

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: The Quintippio Megashave
[info]kazvorpal
2006-07-14 05:28 pm UTC (link)
Well, yeah, but that one only has 15 blades...it's puny.

The Infini-T has infinite blades, or your money back.

You'll note the year of its release at the bottom.

By that time, of course, all appliances are wireless.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: The Quintippio Megashave
[info]kazvorpal
2007-09-02 07:55 pm UTC (link)


Here's the current location of that image...

(Reply to this) (Parent)

We've been here before
(Anonymous)
2007-01-21 04:53 pm UTC (link)
Remember 1000 bit cd players ? Then suddenly one (1) bit was enough. I forsee that Gillette may go to six blade but then they will launch a super one blade with super techonology and that will be enough and competitors will follow suite.

Maybe a single blade with rotating nano size cutters.

(Reply to this) (Thread)

Re: We've been here before
(Anonymous)
2009-07-03 06:41 am UTC (link)
Uh.. no. Maybe you mean 16-bit (65535 discrete levels)

1000 bit would be ~10^300 discrete levels: we don't have the technology to do that.

1-bit DACs work by using a higher frequency (like 2Mhz instead of 44.1kHz), then using some kind of Digital signal processing to make the two discrete voltage levels sound good in the audible frequency range (20Hz-22KHz).

As some people hinted at, electric razors already have hundreds of "blades" (If you count all the holes on the screens).

(Reply to this) (Parent)


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